Should you raise rent at renewal? A Richmond owner's checklist.

Every spring, owners ask the same question: What should I raise rent to at renewal?

The wrong answers are easy. Too high and you lose a good resident, eat 30 days of vacancy, pay turnover costs, and start a new lease at a number you might have hit anyway. Too low and you leave thousands on the table over the life of the next lease — money you can never get back.

The right answer requires looking at five things in order. Here's the checklist we use.

1. What's the market rent right now?

Not what your unit rented for two years ago. Not what your neighbor's unit rented for last summer. What would your specific home rent for if you listed it today?

For our managed properties, we pull comparable active listings within a half-mile, filter by bedrooms and condition, and look at the median asking rent — not last sale, asking now. That number is your ceiling.

If you don't have a comp tool, Zillow's "rent estimate" is a rough starting point but tends to lag the real market by 3 to 6 months. Better to look at active listings on apartments.com or facebook marketplace for the same neighborhood and unit type.

2. How does the current rent compare?

Calculate the gap between current rent and market rent. Three scenarios:

Less than 5% gap. You're at market. A 3% to 5% renewal increase keeps you ahead of inflation and signals professional management. Your resident probably won't push back.

5% to 12% gap. You're below market. A 6% to 10% renewal increase closes part of the gap without pricing your resident out of staying. This is the sweet spot we see most often.

More than 12% gap. You've been undercharging. You can either close the gap aggressively (which risks turnover) or close it gradually over two years (which keeps the resident but extends the period of below-market rent). The right call depends on the resident and the property.

3. What kind of resident do you have?

This is the unsentimental part. Not all residents are equal in retention math.

A resident who pays on time every month, takes care of the property, communicates well, and doesn't generate maintenance escalations is worth keeping. Even at the cost of a smaller increase. Replacing a great resident usually means 30+ days vacant, $1,500 to $3,000 in turnover costs, and a 25% chance the new resident isn't as good.

A resident who's chronically late on rent, leaves repair requests until they're emergencies, or has caused damage you absorbed is a different calculation. Pushing aggressive rent and letting them choose to leave can be the better outcome.

4. What's your vacancy tolerance?

If your property cash-flows tightly, a month of vacancy can wipe out the entire annual rent increase you fought for. Math: a $1,800/month rental with a 10% renewal increase ($180/month) gains $2,160 over the next year. One month vacant costs $1,800 plus $1,000+ in turnover prep. Net loss.

Owners with strong cash reserves and multiple properties can take more turnover risk in pursuit of higher rents. Owners with one property and tight margins should value retention more than the absolute optimum rent.

5. What does the data say about retention?

Across our portfolio, here's what we've learned about renewal increases and resident behavior:

• 3% to 6% increases: 85%+ of residents renew. Almost no pushback.
• 7% to 10% increases: 75% renew. Some negotiation. Most accept.
• 11% to 15% increases: 55% renew. Visible friction. Often a counter-offer.
• Above 15%: 40% or fewer renew. The resident reads it as a signal you want them out.

The right increase is the one that's defensible against market data and respectful of the relationship — not the maximum you could theoretically charge.

The Richmond context.

Richmond rents grew faster than national averages from 2021 through 2024. That growth has slowed in 2025-2026, especially in apartment buildings. Single-family rentals have held up better — fewer of them in the market, more demand from families looking to escape apartment living.

For our managed properties last year: 8.9% average renewal increase, 75% renewal rate. That tells us we're in the right zone. Aggressive enough to capture market growth. Restrained enough to keep good residents.

If you're not sure where your specific property sits, that's the kind of analysis we do for owners every day. We can pull comps, calculate the right ask, and tell you what we'd recommend. No pressure to use us — just a clear answer.